25 09

An international team of doctors have developed a machine learning system which can predict the development of Bipolar Disorder up to 4 years before onset in young people: at age 18 it was able to predict which individuals would develop the condition at age 22.

“What we found was that we can identify who will develop bipolar disorder around four years before the onset of the condition, by tracking the individuals from birth through to adulthood.

We used machine learning techniques which are based on the same learning techniques used to detect such things as spam and weather forecasting.

It was the job of the machine learning to weigh these factors and estimate the risk of developing bipolar disorder”.

Commenting, Professor Eduard Vieta (Barcelona), ex-ECNP Executive Committee member said, “Population-based cohort studies are extremely important to develop predictive models that may aid in the prevention of serious conditions such as bipolar disorder.

There have been other initiatives in the past to build calculators with that aim”. 

“What is most needed is replication and verification of the validity of the algorithm.

The present study, hence, has its merits but is relatively small and needs replication in a separate, independent cohort; moreover, unusual findings such as the underrepresentation of bipolar II disorder need clarification as well.”

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