MIT researchers have used AI to predict which technologies are rapidly improving — and which ones are overhyped. In a new study, the team quantitatively assessed the future potential of 97% of the US patent system.
The fastest-improving domains were predominantly software-related. Their research could give entrepreneurs, researchers, investors, and policy-makers clues about the future opportunities in tech.
“Our method provides predictions of performance improvement rates for nearly all definable technologies for the first time,” said lead author.
The team used a new probability-based algorithm, machine learning, natural language processing, and patent network analytics to predict the performance improvement rates of different technologies.
They first divided the patents into 1,757 discrete technology domains. Each of these was comprised of inventions that fulfill a specific function using a distinct branch of scientific knowledge.
The researchers then estimated the average “centrality” of patents in each domain.
“The domains that show improvement rates greater than the predicted rate for integrated chips, from Moore’s law, are predominantly based upon software and algorithms,” the researchers wrote.
“In addition, the rates of improvement were not a strong function of the patent set size.”
Technologies relating to the internet in general and enterprise network management were also predicted to rapidly advance.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733321000950
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